ONTARIO COVID-19 PROJECTIONS
Ontario has released scientific projections outlining the number of expected COVID-19 cases and deaths in Ontario. The projections are based on scientific modeling completed by a team of researchers, analysts, and scientists from Ontario universities, Public Health Ontario, and Ontario Health. Scientists highlight that projections are not exact, will vary depending on models used, and they are subject to change.
A summary of key points from the projections is outlined below:
• COVID-19 is following a similar spread trajectory as the U.S. Public health measures put into place on March 12, 2020 (and subsequently enhanced) have significantly helped to slow the spread of the disease.
• With current public health measures remaining in place, it is estimated that Ontario will see 80,000 cases and 1200 deaths by the end of April. These numbers are significantly lower than they would have been had no public health measures been put into place.
• Had no measures been put into place, projections indicate that Ontario would have seen 300,000 cases and 6,000 deaths by the end of the month.
• With additional public health measures, the number of confirmed cases in Ontario could be lowered to 12,000 cases and 250 deaths by the end of April.
• The full course of pandemic may last 18 months to 2 years as it will likely include a secondary or even tertiary wave.
• By the end of the pandemic, it is expected that Ontario will see 3,000 and 15,000 deaths due to COVID-19. There is a significant range because it depends on how well public health measures are implemented and followed by the public.
• Had no public health measures been put into place, Ontario could have suffered closer to 100,000 deaths by the time COVID-19 concluded its full course.
• Mortality of COVID is 10 times higher than regular season flu and there is no vaccine or
treatment.
• The mortality rate for COVID-19 for those over the age of 80 which is 16% in Ontario. Global evidence suggests the mortality rate for those over the age of 80 is 20%. The global mortality rate for those over the age of 70 is 10%.
• Rapid increase of Ontario’s health system capacity paired with strengthened public health measure implementation, Ontario’s health system should be able to respond to hospital/medical demand in the coming weeks. The public health system could easily become overwhelmed should this not be the case.
ENHANCED RESPONSES
In response to these projections, Ontario is implementing the following increased public health measures and responses:
• Reducing numbers and types of essential workplaces and enhancing enforcement measures for non-compliance.
• Ontario will mandate the closure of all non-essential construction sites in the province starting 11:59 p.m. Saturday April 4, 2020. Those sites allowed to remain open will be required to implement strict precautions and will be monitored closely.
• Enhancing physical distancing guidelines, especially in retail settings, as well as enforcement measures. Providing self-isolation reinforcements using methods such as alert technology.
• Enhanced public education and communication materials.
• Increased measures and supports for homeless, shelters, and long-term care homes.
• Enhanced capacity for contact tracing and testing. Ontario has now eliminated its testing backlog.
• Prioritizing testing for residents of long-term care facilities and their caregivers.
FURTHER INFORMATION AND RESOURCES
AIAI will continue to monitor for further information and details on COVID-19 projections and enhanced Ontario Responses. The information provided in this memo came from the live stream media release at Queens Park on April 3, 2020 at 12:30 p.m. with CEO of Ontario Public Health.
Public Health Unit Contact:
http://www.health.gov.on.ca/en/common/system/services/phu/locations.aspx
Telehealth Ontario: 1-866-797-0000
Online COVID-19 self-assessment tool: https://covid-19.ontario.ca/self-assessment/#q0)
Submit a price gouging complaint: 1-800-889-9768 or https://www.ontario.ca/page/2019-
novel-coronavirus#section-1
Official List of Essential Businesses in Ontario:
https://www.ontario.ca/page/list-essentialworkplaces
How to self-isolate: https://www.ontario.ca/page/2019-novel-coronavirus#section-10
Symptoms and Treatment: https://www.ontario.ca/page/2019-novel-coronavirus#section-8
Ontario State of Emergency: https://www.ontario.ca/page/2019-novel-coronavirus#section-1
Ontario COVID website: https://www.ontario.ca/page/2019-novel-coronavirus
Canada COVID website: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-
novel-coronavirus-infection.html
Chiefs of Ontario COVID webpage: https://chiefsofontario.wordpress.com/
Chiefs of Ontario COVID-19 questions: covid19@coo.org — questions will be filtered to, two dedicated staff and sent out to appropriate ministries.
Below is a link to the info slides/graphs that were referenced during the Ontario media release of provincial COVID-19 projections on Friday April 3rd.
http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/6824779/COVID-19-Technical-Briefing-Friday-April-4-2020.pdf
You can also download a copy for yourself from our website below
COVID-19 –Projections & Enhanced Responses in Ontario
